VicGrid Stage 2 Reform Erodes Trust and Social Licence – A Failed Model of Project Delivery
Have we learned lessons from the past? Or are we entrenching failure into law?
The Victorian Government is currently pushing a new law through Parliament that it claims will accelerate our vital transition to renewable energy. But a close look at the National Electricity (Victoria) Amendment (VicGrid Stage 2 Reform) Bill 2025 shows it will do the exact opposite. Instead of learning from the disastrous failures of past projects, this Bill doubles down on a broken, top-down model. It’s a model that replaces negotiation with coercion, transparency with secrecy, and community partnership with state-sanctioned force. Far from speeding up the transition, this Bill is a blueprint for conflict, delays, and a complete breakdown of the social licence needed to build anything at all.
For the first time, a new forensic report from Energy Grid Alliance, "The Long Shadow of the Link," details the complete history of the Western Renewables Link (WRL) and VNI West projects. It exposes how this top-down, secretive process has led to a crisis in regional Victoria, a crisis the government now seeks to solve by replacing the need for social licence with the force of law.
Our investigation, based on the government's and AEMO's own documents, reveals:
- Catastrophic Cost Escalation – VNI West: AEMO’s 2025 Electricity Network Options Report shows VNI West’s cost has risen from ~$3.9 billion in 2023 to ~$7.0 billion, with developer estimates at ~$7.6 billion and a potential range of $5.3–$11.4 billion.
- A Tenfold Cost Blowout – WRL: Based on that same per-kilometre cost (~$16m/km), the Western Renewables Link — originally $370 million — is now estimated to cost over $3 billion.
- A Project Built on a False Premise: The WRL was engineered as a "Trojan horse" to secure a land corridor for the much larger VNI West project.
- Direct Political Interference: The Victorian Government issued special orders to bypass national regulations at the direct, written request of AEMO’s CEO.
- A Coercive New Law: The VicGrid Bill now before Parliament seeks to make this failed model the law of the land, granting the state new powers for forced entry onto private land and explicitly exempting VicGrid from Freedom of Information laws.
- The Destruction of Social Licence: At every step, the planning process has sidelined community concerns, leading to a complete breakdown of trust. The Bill makes this approach official policy, guaranteeing conflict that will delay the transition.
The greatest fallacy of this Bill is that it will provide certainty and speed. By choosing force over fairness, it guarantees the opposite. It will destroy social licence on a statewide scale, harden community opposition, and mire every future project in protest and protracted legal challenges. This creates enormous risk that will deter the very investment we need.
Why would investors commit to a project in a state where the government's model guarantees community hostility and legal battles? This Bill is the single greatest threat to a timely and cost-effective energy transition in Victoria. It’s a multi-billion-dollar mistake waiting to happen, and Victorian households will be the ones left to pay the price.
Read the detailed analysis for yourself...
Download the Forensic Report: "The Long Shadow of the Link"
What You Can Do
This legislation is before the Victorian Parliament's upper house now. It is critical that Members of the Legislative Council hear from you. Contact your representatives and tell them to REJECT this Bill that destroys the social licence needed for a successful energy transition. You can find your MLCs here.